By the Blocktec Editorial Team
Economists expect Philippine inflation to speed up again in October, with two polls putting the median at 7.6% and 7.7%. That compares with 7.2% in September and just 1.7% in October 2025. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release the official figure on November 5, 2026.
What The Polls Are Saying
A poll of 12 economists, reported by Philstar and Inquirer, produced a median forecast of 7.6%. Individual estimates ranged from 7.3% to 7.8%. A second economist survey, reported by The Manila Times, landed slightly higher at 7.7%.
If the PSA figure comes in around those levels, it would be the fastest inflation since early 2023. It would also fall inside the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) own estimate range for October, which runs from 7.1% to 8.1%. Inflation has now stayed above the BSP's 2-4% target for seven straight months.
To put the jump in plain terms: a basket of goods that cost P100 in October 2025 would cost about P107.60 today if the 7.6% median proves right.
Who Made Which Call
The highest forecasts, at 7.8%, came from Nicholas Mapa of Metrobank, Domini Velasquez of Chinabank, Ruben Carlo Asuncion of UnionBank and Jonathan Ravelas of Reyes Tacandong. Emilio Neri Jr. of BPI projected 7.7%.
The lowest calls, at 7.3%, came from Miguel Chanco of Pantheon and Denise Cheok of Moody's Analytics. Chanco said October might already be the peak.
Others expect more pain ahead. Neri said November inflation could pass 8% if price pressures persist, and he and Velasquez both expect the peak to come in November. Alvin Arogo of PNB takes a different view, seeing a 7.6% peak in February 2027. The Freeman, part of the Philstar group, headlined its report on the possibility of inflation breaching 8% in November.
What Is Pushing Prices Up
The economists pointed to several causes:
- Late-September fare increases for buses, jeepneys and taxis
- The P60 Metro Manila minimum wage hike
- Higher Meralco rates
- Pricier gasoline and kerosene
- A weak peso, which slid to record lows near P64 per dollar
The peso matters because it raises the peso cost of imported fuel, food and raw materials. Some relief came from cheaper rice, vegetables and meat, which kept the headline number from rising further.
Velasquez also expects core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, to rise to 5.4% from 4.7%. That suggests price increases are spreading beyond a few items.
The BSP Response And What Comes Next
On October 22, the BSP raised its policy rate by 50 basis points (half a percentage point) to 5.50%. It was the central bank's fourth hike in 2026. Most analysts expect more tightening, possibly at the BSP's last meeting of the year on December 17, though they disagree on how large the next move would be.
The next checkpoints are clear: the PSA release on November 5, the November inflation reading after that, and the December 17 policy meeting.
What It Means For Builders
For anyone with a project on the drawing board, this news touches two budget lines at once. A weak peso near P64 per dollar makes imported materials costlier. Further BSP hikes can raise borrowing costs for developers and homeowners with construction loans. With the P60 Metro Manila wage hike also in play, labor days are worth watching closely.
That last point is where wall choices can help. Labor is a cost you can plan around, because fewer days on site means less exposure to wage and price changes. Blocktec imports AAC (autoclaved aerated concrete) blocks, and the system is laid with thin-bed adhesive and finished with skimcoat, so it is walang palitada: no thick sand-cement plaster. A trained mason with a helper does about 10-12 m2 per 8-hour shift, and up to 20 m2 on straight runs. In Blocktec's cost comparison, the wall system showed up to about 21% savings versus hollow blocks, though results depend on the project.
Some practical steps while prices stay volatile:
- Get quotes with validity dates, and ask suppliers how long prices are held.
- Lock in quantities early if your design is final.
- Compare total installed cost, including labor days and finishing, not only the price per piece.
- Check how any loan rate changes after the December 17 BSP meeting could affect your schedule.
Watch the November 5 PSA release. If it confirms a figure near 7.6% to 7.7%, expect cost conversations with suppliers and contractors to get tougher, and plan your wall spec and schedule with that in mind.
Sources
- Philstar: October inflation seen accelerating to 7.6 percent (Nov 2, 2026)
- The Manila Times: Analysts: Inflation likely hit 7.7% in Oct (Nov 2, 2026)
- The Freeman (Philstar): Philippines inflation seen breaching 8% in November (Nov 2, 2026)
- Inquirer: Poll: October inflation seen hitting over 3-yr high of 7.6% (Nov 2, 2026)
Planning a build while prices keep moving? Send your wall area or blueprints to sales@blocktec.ph or visit blocktec.ph for a free AAC wall-system estimate.